NYC Market Expected to Heat Up This Fall

By Serj Markarian, Licensed Real Estate Salesperson and Manhattan Market Expert

The fall season in New York City real estate is off to a strong start. In September, nearly 1,700 homes went into contract—a 26.4% increase compared to last year and the highest since 2021, according to StreetEasy. This uptick is likely due to the recent drop in mortgage rates. The market also saw over 4,100 new listings, reflecting a 7.1% rise from a year ago. 

Manhattan played a key role in this growth, particularly in the luxury market. With asking prices for luxury properties dropping from their 2018 peak, more buyers have been enticed to enter the market. In September, 70 new luxury contracts were signed, 64 of which were in Manhattan, marking a 52% year-over-year increase in luxury contracts across NYC. This momentum is continuing into October, with 13 homes listed at $10 million or more going into contract last week—the strongest week for trophy home deals in nearly three years, according to Olshan Realty. 

Although Manhattan saw the most new listings, Brooklyn experienced the largest increase, with 21.5% more listings than last year, while Manhattan lagged slightly, down 1.6% from last September. Despite the rise in listings, inventory remains tight, with overall supply 13% below 2019 levels. As StreetEasy noted, “the NYC sales market is in a sweet spot where rising demand is balanced by growing inventory.” 

Looking ahead, mortgage rate stability will play a crucial role in maintaining this prime market condition. If rates continue to decline gradually, we could see a spike in transactions without the fierce competition witnessed in 2021-22. However, buyers who are still waiting for rates to drop further may miss out on current opportunities. As I mentioned a couple of weeks ago, the market could soon shift in favor of sellers, especially in the luxury sector. Those in a position to buy now should consider acting before lower prices and increased availability tilt the market toward sellers, potentially bringing heightened competition next spring.

For questions on the Manhattan real estate market, connect with Serj Markarian here.