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January 13, 2026
1 Min Read
340 ViewsThe Line: Job Growth Lower than Expected in December
By Hannah Minnick
For the first time in a few months, we have a jobs report on the first Friday of the month. Welcome to the “back to normal” edition of The Line.
Job Growth Lower than Expected in December
That headline really tells you all you need to know, but here are some specifics:
- 50,000 jobs were added last month, less than the Dow Jones estimate of 73,000.
- According to the BLS, 37,000 of those jobs were in the private sector, which was very close to ADP’s estimate of 41,000. It’s nice when those reports are in sync.
- Job growth in October and November was reduced by a total of 76,000 jobs.
- Employment rose by 584,000 in 2025, an average of 49,000 jobs per month. That was down from 2.0 million (or 168,000 jobs per month) in 2024.
- The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.4%
- Wages were 3.8% higher than a year ago, easily outpacing the rise in prices during that time.
To sum up, we are still in a “no hire, no fire” economy. Hiring has slowed dramatically since May, yet the unemployment rate and jobless claims remain very low. Since not much has changed in the past few months, this report won’t have any major impact on the Fed. Right now, markets have just a 5% chance of a rate cut this month, and only one or two cuts are expected in 2026.
Watch the latest episode of Greg Heym’s Crossing the Line below!
January 13, 2026
1 Min Read
340 Views
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